India-Indonesia President Joko Widodo visits New Delhi as the Republic Day 2025 chief guest, the Myanmar conflict is expected to feature prominently in bilateral discussions between the two regional powers. India and Indonesia, two of Southeast Asia’s largest democracies and close geopolitical allies, have been working behind the scenes to facilitate dialogue among Myanmar’s key stakeholders, including the military junta, the exiled National Unity Government (NUG), and various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs).
The ongoing crisis in Myanmar, which began following the military coup in February 2021, has plunged the nation into chaos, resulting in widespread human rights violations, political unrest, economic instability, and regional security concerns. Both India and Indonesia are directly affected by the prolonged conflict, India-Indonesia and their joint efforts to navigate this pressing issue reflect their growing commitment to regional peace and stability.
Myanmar Crisis: A Brief Overview
The Myanmar conflict was triggered when the military, or Tatmadaw, overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. The coup sparked widespread protests across Myanmar, India-Indonesia leading to a brutal crackdown by the military. As of now, the United Nations and other organizations estimate that thousands of civilians have been killed, and more than a million people have been displaced within Myanmar and across its borders.
The civilian opposition, led by the National Unity Government (NUG)—composed of former lawmakers, activists, and representatives from Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups—has declared resistance against the junta and aligned itself with various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military rulers have ignored global calls for an end to violence, leading to increasing isolation from the international community.
Amid the escalating violence and humanitarian crisis, neighboring countries like India and Indonesia have taken steps to engage with all parties involved, aiming to find a solution that ensures peace, India-Indonesia stability, and democracy in Myanmar. 
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India’s Role in the Myanmar Conflict
India, which shares a 1,600-kilometer border with Myanmar, has a vested interest in finding a resolution to the ongoing conflict. The unrest has led to an influx of refugees into India’s northeastern states, particularly Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland, straining local resources and security frameworks.
India’s Balancing Act
India’s response to the crisis has been nuanced, maintaining engagement with the military junta while cautiously supporting democratic aspirations in Myanmar. As a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum (ARF) and a key regional player, India-Indonesia has advocated for inclusive dialogue among Myanmar’s stakeholders, emphasizing the need for democratic restoration and stability.
However, New Delhi has refrained from openly condemning the military junta, recognizing its role in countering insurgencies and cross-border terrorism in the region. India also fears losing geopolitical ground to China, India-Indonesia which has aggressively expanded its influence in Myanmar by providing economic and military support to the junta.
Indonesia’s Approach: Leading ASEAN’s Myanmar Policy
As the largest member state of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia has played a central role in shaping the bloc’s response to the Myanmar crisis. During its tenure as ASEAN chair in 2023, Indonesia intensified efforts to broker peace by spearheading secret “quiet diplomacy” initiatives involving the junta, NUG, and EAOs.
The Five-Point Consensus
ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus—agreed upon in April 2021 to address the Myanmar crisis—remains Indonesia’s main diplomatic framework for facilitating peace. The plan calls for:
- An immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar.
- Constructive dialogue among all parties.
- Mediation by an ASEAN special envoy.
- Humanitarian assistance to Myanmar.
- Visits by the special envoy to meet all stakeholders in Myanmar.
However, the junta has largely ignored the consensus, frustrating ASEAN members and prompting Indonesia to intensify backchannel efforts to bring parties to the negotiation table. Indonesian diplomats have emphasized the need for solutions that respect Myanmar’s sovereignty while ensuring civilian safety and addressing humanitarian concerns.
India-Indonesia Collaboration on Myanmar
Both India and Indonesia bring complementary strengths to their efforts on Myanmar. While Indonesia leads multilateral efforts through ASEAN, India provides critical connectivity, economic engagement, India-Indonesia and leverage as Myanmar’s immediate neighbor. The cooperation between the two countries reflects their shared interest in preventing the Myanmar crisis from destabilizing the broader Indo-Pacific region.
High-Level Bilateral Talks
During President Joko Widodo’s visit to New Delhi, Myanmar is expected to dominate discussions with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Both leaders have stressed the importance of regional stability and the need for multilateral and bilateral efforts to address the conflict.
Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi stated in a briefing ahead of the Republic Day visit:
“India and Indonesia recognize the importance of ensuring peace and security in Myanmar. The upcoming talks will explore how both nations can work together to facilitate dialogue, humanitarian support, India-Indonesia and an eventual return to democracy in Myanmar.”
Security Concerns: Managing Spillover Effects
Refugee Influx and Cross-Border Security
The ongoing conflict has resulted in a significant refugee influx into northeastern India. Local authorities in states like Mizoram have reported hosting tens of thousands of refugees fleeing persecution by the Myanmar military. While India has provided humanitarian aid, including food, shelter, India-Indonesia and medical care, the presence of refugees has raised concerns about resource shortages and social tensions.
Both India and Indonesia will likely discuss mechanisms to address the refugee crisis collaboratively, with an emphasis on ensuring the safety and dignity of displaced communities while maintaining national security.
Counterinsurgency Cooperation
Another major concern for India is the threat posed by armed insurgent groups that operate along the Indo-Myanmar border. The porous nature of the border has historically allowed these groups to move freely, India-Indonesia exacerbating violence and instability in India’s northeast.
By partnering with Indonesia, which has its own challenges in combating regional terrorism, India hopes to enhance intelligence sharing and coordinate efforts to counter insurgent networks that benefit from the current instability in Myanmar.
Humanitarian Assistance: Responding to a Crisis
Both countries are also likely to prioritize the delivery of humanitarian aid to Myanmar, as millions of people face displacement, food shortages, and healthcare crises. Humanitarian corridors have been proposed to ensure the safe delivery of aid to conflict zones, India-Indonesia with both India and Indonesia potentially contributing logistics, resources, and diplomatic leverage to facilitate access.
India has already extended humanitarian support by providing rice, medical supplies, and COVID-19 vaccines to Myanmar. Discussions are expected to focus on scaling up such efforts, particularly through partnerships with ASEAN and international organizations.
Geopolitical Dimensions
The Myanmar crisis has a larger geopolitical dimension, with external players such as China, the United States, and the European Union taking active stances.
China’s Influence in Myanmar
China remains the most significant external actor in Myanmar, maintaining strong ties with the military junta while engaging with EAOs to secure its economic and strategic interests. Beijing’s involvement in Myanmar’s infrastructure projects, India-Indonesia such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), has given it leverage over the junta, further complicating efforts by India and ASEAN to find an inclusive resolution.
Both India and Indonesia are wary of China’s expanding footprint in Myanmar and may use their discussions to strategize countermeasures, India-Indonesia including strengthening connectivity projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project to reduce Myanmar’s dependency on Beijing.
U.S. and Western Influence
The United States and the European Union have imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s military leaders, targeting their financial resources and urging democratic restoration. India and Indonesia, however, have adopted more pragmatic approaches, focusing on dialogue rather than punitive measures. Balancing their relations with Western allies while addressing Myanmar’s realities will likely feature in bilateral discussions. 
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Key Outcomes to Watch
- Joint Mediation Efforts: Both nations could propose joint initiatives to bring the junta, NUG, and EAOs together for talks. They may seek to convene a new platform under ASEAN or the BIMSTEC framework.
- Humanitarian Corridors: Discussions may yield strategies to create secure pathways for delivering aid to affected regions, leveraging India’s land access and Indonesia’s diplomatic clout.
- Border Security Mechanisms: Collaborative approaches to managing the Indo-Myanmar border and tackling cross-border insurgency could feature as a priority.
- Connectivity Projects: Strengthening regional connectivity through economic projects involving Myanmar could help reduce its dependency on China, fostering long-term stability.
Conclusion: A Regional Imperative
The Myanmar conflict presents a pressing challenge for India and Indonesia, two of the most prominent voices in the Indo-Pacific. As leaders of democratic nations and key regional players, both countries have a shared responsibility to address the crisis not only for the sake of Myanmar’s people but also for the stability and prosperity of Southeast Asia.
President Joko Widodo’s visit to India during the Republic Day celebrations provides an opportunity to align strategies, India-Indonesia reinforce bilateral ties, and offer hope for a coordinated solution to one of the most challenging conflicts in recent history. Both countries recognize that their ability to manage this crisis effectively will not only define their regional leadership but also shape the larger geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific ALSO READ:- Putin Claims Ukraine Conflict Could Have Been Avoided if Trump Had Remained U.S. President 2025