Tunisians , the birthplace of the Arab Spring, has once again become the focus of international attention as its citizens head to the polls in a highly anticipated election. This time, all eyes are on President Kais Saied, who is expected to secure a second term in office. Saied, a former law professor with a reputation for being incorruptible and independent, has steered Tunisia through turbulent political waters since his election in 2019. However, his controversial moves, particularly his consolidation of power and dissolution of parliament in 2021, have sparked widespread debate and criticism both within Tunisia and internationally.
As Tunisians vote in what is being seen as a pivotal moment in the country’s modern political history, this article delves into the key factors that have shaped Saied’s presidency, the reasons behind his popularity, the challenges facing Tunisia, and the broader implications of his re-election for democracy in the region.
Kais Saied’s Rise to Power: A Popular Choice Amidst Political Uncertainty
Kais Saied emerged as a political outsider in the 2019 presidential elections, gaining widespread support due to his stance against corruption and his promise to overhaul Tunisia’s political system. A soft-spoken law professor with no prior political experience, Saied appealed to many Tunisians who were disillusioned with the political elite and the lack of progress since the 2011 revolution. His platform was built on legal reform, a commitment to upholding Tunisia’s constitution, and fighting entrenched corruption.
Saied’s rise was seen as a symbol of hope for many Tunisians who believed he could bring about the political change that the country so desperately needed. In the wake of the Arab Spring, Tunisia was hailed as the only success story, transitioning from an authoritarian regime under former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to a democracy. However, by the time of the 2019 elections, many Tunisians were frustrated with the slow pace of economic and social reforms, as well as the persistent political gridlock.
Saied’s victory was a reflection of the growing sentiment for a leader who would not only prioritize the rule of law but also take decisive action to address the political and economic malaise gripping the country. His clean image and unpolished speaking style resonated with voters, and he won a landslide victory with over 70% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election.
The 2021 Power Grab: A Controversial Turning Point
Despite his initial popularity, Saied’s presidency took a controversial turn in July 2021, when he invoked Article 80 of the Tunisian Constitution to dismiss Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi, suspend parliament, and assume executive authority. He justified his actions as necessary to protect the state from political paralysis and to tackle the country’s deepening economic crisis. Tunisia, at the time, was facing a severe economic downturn exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, high unemployment, and widespread discontent with the political class.
The move was met with mixed reactions. Some Tunisians welcomed Saied’s decision, seeing it as a much-needed step to break the political deadlock and restore stability. Others, however, criticized it as a power grab that undermined Tunisia’s hard-won democratic gains. His actions were described by some political opponents as a “constitutional coup,” and concerns were raised that Tunisia was sliding back into authoritarianism.
In the months that followed, Saied continued to consolidate his power. He dissolved Tunisia’s Supreme Judicial Council, which oversees the judiciary, and later dissolved the country’s Independent High Authority for Elections. He also introduced a new constitution, approved through a controversial referendum in July 2022, which granted the president sweeping powers and significantly reduced the role of parliament.
Critics argued that the new constitution marked a significant departure from the 2014 constitution, which had been praised for its progressive and democratic principles. The concentration of power in the hands of the president, they argued, threatened the checks and balances that are crucial to any functioning democracy.
Saied’s Popularity: The Root Causes
Despite these controversies, Saied has managed to maintain significant support among many Tunisians. There are several key reasons behind his enduring popularity.
1. Frustration with the Political Elite
One of the primary reasons for Saied’s popularity is the widespread frustration with Tunisia’s political elite. Since the 2011 revolution, Tunisia’s political landscape has been dominated by bickering parties and fragile coalition governments. Many Tunisians believe that the political class has been more focused on self-interest than addressing the country’s pressing economic and social issues. Saied, by contrast, is seen as an outsider to the political establishment, untainted by corruption or partisan politics.
His decisive actions, particularly the suspension of parliament, resonated with those who viewed the legislature as ineffective and out of touch with the needs of ordinary Tunisians. For many, Saied’s willingness to bypass the traditional political system was seen as a necessary step to get things done.
2. The Economic Crisis
Tunisia’s economic crisis has been one of the biggest challenges facing Saied’s presidency. The country has struggled with high unemployment, particularly among its youth, rising inflation, and a growing public debt. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the economic situation, pushing more Tunisians into poverty and stretching the country’s already limited resources.
Saied’s supporters argue that he inherited an economy in shambles and that his actions, including the centralization of power, were necessary to implement meaningful reforms. Saied has also sought to attract foreign investment and has called for a renegotiation of Tunisia’s debt with international financial institutions. However, his critics argue that his government has yet to deliver concrete solutions to the economic challenges facing the country.
3. Security Concerns
Tunisia, like many countries in the region, has faced security challenges, including the threat of terrorism. Saied has positioned himself as a strong leader who prioritizes the safety and security of the country. His hardline stance on security issues, including his crackdown on certain Islamist groups, has garnered support among those who view him as a protector of national stability.
4. The Call for Justice and Anti-Corruption Efforts
Saied’s anti-corruption rhetoric continues to resonate with many Tunisians who are disillusioned with the political system. He has repeatedly emphasized the need to root out corruption, and his government has initiated investigations into various political and business figures. Saied’s focus on justice and transparency is seen by many as a positive step toward holding those in power accountable.
The 2024 Election: A Foregone Conclusion?
As Tunisians head to the polls, many analysts believe that Kais Saied is almost certain to be re-elected. Despite the controversies surrounding his presidency, he remains a popular figure, particularly among those who view him as a necessary force for stability in a country that has faced years of political and economic turmoil.
Saied’s opponents, Tunisians however, have raised concerns about the fairness of the election process. Some opposition parties have boycotted the election, arguing that the political environment is not conducive to a free and fair vote. They point to Saied’s consolidation of power, the dissolution of key democratic institutions, and restrictions on the media as evidence that the election is skewed in his favor.
International observers, including human rights organizations, have also expressed concerns about the erosion of democratic principles in Tunisia. They argue that while Saied may have a mandate from a portion of the population, his actions risk undermining the democratic gains made since the 2011 revolution. 
What Does Saied’s Re-Election Mean for Tunisia’s Future?
If Saied is re-elected, as expected, Tunisia’s political trajectory will likely continue along its current path of centralized power. Saied’s presidency will be defined by his vision of a “new republic,” one in which the president holds the majority of power, and the role of parliament and other democratic institutions is significantly diminished.
For some Tunisians, this represents a welcome change from the political chaos that has plagued the country in recent years. Saied’s supporters believe that his strong leadership is necessary to stabilize the country and implement much-needed reforms. They argue that Tunisia’s previous experiment with democracy was marred by corruption and inefficiency, and that Saied’s model of governance offers a more effective way forward.
However, for others Tunisians, Saied’s re-election raises concerns about the future of democracy in Tunisia. The consolidation of power in the hands of one individual, they argue, is a step backward for a country that was once hailed as a beacon of hope for democratic reform in the Arab world. The risk, they warn, is that Tunisia could slip back into authoritarianism, undoing the progress made since the revolution.
Conclusion
As Tunisians vote with Kais Saied poised to be re-elected, the country stands at a critical crossroads. Saied’s presidency has been marked by bold, and at times controversial, moves that have reshaped Tunisia’s political landscape. His supporters view him as a necessary force for change in a country struggling with political dysfunction and economic crisis. His critics, however, fear that his consolidation of power threatens the very democratic principles that Tunisians fought for during the Arab Spring.
The outcome of the 2024 election will have significant implications not only for Tunisia but also for the broader region. As the only country to emerge from the Arab Spring with a functioning democracy, Tunisia’s political future is closely watched by those who hope for democratic reform in the Middle East. Whether Saied’s re-election leads to further centralization of power or paves the way for meaningful reforms remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that Tunisia’s political journey is far from over, and the decisions made in the coming years will shape the country’s future for generations to come. ALSO READ:- Winning Was More Important Than Net Run Rate, Says Arundhati 2024